Economic returns of family planning and fertility decline in India, 1991–2061

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of Demographic Economics Pub Date : 2021-04-20 DOI:10.1017/dem.2021.3

Srinivas Goli, K. S. James, Devender Singh, V. Srinivasan, Rakesh Mishra, M. J. Rana, U. S. Reddy

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引用次数: 3

Abstract

Abstract Investment in family planning (FP) provides returns through a lifetime. Global evidence shows that FP is the second-best buy in terms of return on investment after liberalizing trade. In this study, we estimate the cumulative benefits of FP investments for India from 1991 to 2016 and project them up to 2061 with four scenarios of fertility levels. The findings suggest that India will have greater elasticity of FP investments to lifetime economic returns compared to the world average (cost–revenue ratio of 1:120). We have taken four scenarios for the goalpost, viz., 2.1, 1.8, 1.6, and 1.4. Although different scenarios of total fertility rate (TFR) levels at the goalpost (i.e., the year 2061) offer varied lifetime returns from FP, scenario TFR < 1.8 will be counterproductive and will reduce the potential benefits. With a comprehensive approach, if the country focuses more on improving the quality of FP services and on reducing the unmet need for FP to enhance reproductive health care and expand maximum opportunities for education and employment for both women and men, it can improve its potential to reap more benefits.

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1991-2061年印度计划生育的经济收益和生育率下降

摘要:计划生育投资提供终身回报。全球证据表明，就投资回报率而言，计划生育是仅次于贸易自由化的第二佳选择。在这项研究中，我们估计了1991年至2016年印度计划生育投资的累积收益，并在四种生育率水平情景下预测了到2061年的计划生育投资收益。研究结果表明，与世界平均水平(成本收入比为1:120)相比，印度的计划生育投资对终身经济回报的弹性更大。我们为门柱设定了四种场景，即2.1、1.8、1.6和1.4。尽管目标柱(即2061年)的总生育率(TFR)水平的不同情景提供了不同的计划生育终身回报，但TFR < 1.8的情景将适得其反，并将降低潜在收益。采取综合办法，如果国家更加注重提高计划生育服务的质量，减少对计划生育的未满足需求，以加强生殖保健，最大限度地扩大妇女和男子的教育和就业机会，就可以提高其获得更多利益的潜力。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Demographic Economics Multiple-

CiteScore

2.30

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Demographic variables such as fertility, mortality, migration and family structures notably respond to economic incentives and in turn affect the economic development of societies. Journal of Demographic Economics welcomes both empirical and theoretical papers on issues relevant to Demographic Economics with a preference for combining abstract economic or demographic models together with data to highlight major mechanisms. The journal was first published in 1929 as Bulletin de l’Institut des Sciences Economiques. It later became known as Louvain Economic Review, and continued till 2014 to publish under this title. In 2015, it moved to Cambridge University Press, increased its international character and changed its focus exclusively to demographic economics.