Survival analysis of longitudinal data: the case of English population aged 50 and over

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of Demographic Economics Pub Date : 2023-08-10 DOI:10.1017/dem.2023.3

Marjan Qazvini

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract This study considers data from 5 waves of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). We aim to study the impact of demographic and self-rated health variables including disability and diseases on the survival of the population aged 50+. The disability variables that we consider are mobility impairment, difficulties in performing Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL). One of the problems with the survey study is missing observations. This may happen due to different reasons, such as errors, nonresponse and temporary withdrawals. We address this problem by applying single and multiple imputation methods. We then fit a Generalized Linear model (GLM) and Generalized Linear Mixed model (GLMM) to our data and show that a GLMM performs better than a GLM in terms of information criteria. We also look at the predictability of our models in terms of the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and the area of ROC, i.e. AUC. We conclude that among the disability factors, IADL and among the diseases, cancer significantly affect the survival of the English population aged 50 and older.

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纵向资料的生存分析:以英国50岁及以上人口为例

摘要本研究考虑了英国老龄化纵向研究（ELSA）的5波数据。我们的目的是研究人口统计学和自评健康变量（包括残疾和疾病）对50岁以上人群生存的影响。我们考虑的残疾变量是行动障碍、日常生活活动（ADL）和日常生活工具活动（IADL）的执行困难。调查研究的一个问题是缺少观察结果。这可能是由于不同的原因造成的，例如错误、未响应和临时提款。我们通过应用单一和多重插补方法来解决这个问题。然后，我们将广义线性模型（GLM）和广义线性混合模型（GLMM）拟合到我们的数据中，并表明在信息标准方面，GLMM比GLM表现得更好。我们还从与时间相关的受试者工作特性（ROC）和ROC面积（即AUC）的角度来研究我们模型的可预测性。我们得出的结论是，在残疾因素中，IADL和疾病中，癌症显著影响50岁及以上英国人口的生存。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Demographic Economics Multiple-

CiteScore

2.30

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Demographic variables such as fertility, mortality, migration and family structures notably respond to economic incentives and in turn affect the economic development of societies. Journal of Demographic Economics welcomes both empirical and theoretical papers on issues relevant to Demographic Economics with a preference for combining abstract economic or demographic models together with data to highlight major mechanisms. The journal was first published in 1929 as Bulletin de l’Institut des Sciences Economiques. It later became known as Louvain Economic Review, and continued till 2014 to publish under this title. In 2015, it moved to Cambridge University Press, increased its international character and changed its focus exclusively to demographic economics.