A skill-specific dynamic labour supply and labour demand framework: A scenario analysis for the Western Balkan countries to 2030

Abstract

This paper pursues a multiple scenario analysis until 2030 to identify past and potential future labour supply and demand dynamics of four different skill groups in the six Western Balkan (WB6) countries. Simulation results of the baseline scenario show that skill shortages and surpluses would coexist: In all WB6 countries, the low educated would experience labour shortages within or shortly after the projection period while in some WB6 countries there is evidence of growing excess labour among Med-VETs, Med-GENs and the highly educated. Additional scenarios point to important country-specific policy options that can help to mitigate these projected labour market imbalances.