The effects of sunshine duration and ambient temperature on suicides in Hungary.

Abstract

Background: A couple of studies suggest that sunshine duration and ambient temperature contribute to suicide. Few studies have happened in East-Central European area.

Objective: We scrutinized the daily suicide rates and other measured meteorological parameters spanning from 1971 to 2013 in the region of Hungary exhibiting the highest suicide rate.

Methods: The meteorological parameters measured in the area signified the independent variables of the statistical model, while the observed suicide rate connoted the dependent variable. Dynamic Regression, a time series analytical method was employed for creating the model.

Results: Three meteorological parameters displayed a weak, yet statistically significant relationship with suicide rates. 1/ Daily sunshine duration has shown an immediate, significant positive correlation, 2/ daily changes in temperature at ground level also exhibited a significant relationship, albeit it followed a complex transient profile overarching three days. Tropopause height was also significant in the model: an immediate positive effect was followed by a negative effect six days later.

Conclusions: We estimated consistent and immediate positive associations between daily suicide and daily change of elevated ambient temperature and duration of sunshine in a high rated area of Hungary.