Spatio-temporal heterogeneity of urban resilience from an environment– service–connectivity perspective: A case study of Beijing

Abstract

To address the systemic complexity and uncertainty risks associated with urbanization, this study develops a spatiotemporal dynamic evaluation model of urban resilience based on a three-dimensional “environment–service–connectivity” framework. Taking Beijing as a case study, the model integrates entropy-weighted TOPSIS, coupling coordination analysis, geographic detection, and geographically weighted regression to systematically reveal the spatiotemporal characteristics of urban resilience, the coupling mechanisms among its dimensions, and the spatial heterogeneity of influencing factors for 2010, 2015, and 2020. The results indicate that: (1) overall urban resilience in Beijing continuously improved over the study period, exhibiting a spatial pattern of higher resilience in central and southeastern areas and lower resilience in northern and southwestern regions; (2) the coupling coordination among the environmental, service, and connectivity dimensions gradually improved but remained at an early coordination stage, with three typical regional types identified: “high resilience–basic coordination”, “high resilience–basically uncoordinated”, and “low resilience–extremely uncoordinated”; (3) service facility diversity was identified as the dominant factor driving resilience enhancement, while the effects of other factors showed significant spatial heterogeneity. Specifically, resilience in the western ecological conservation areas was mainly driven by the proportion of cultivated and forested land, in northern regions by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), in north-central areas by road network density, and in central and southern regions by proximity to medical facilities. This study demonstrates that the proposed model can effectively identify resilience gaps at the grid-cell level, providing a scientific basis for targeted spatial governance and differentiated strategies to enhance urban resilience in Beijing.