Escalators, not Equalisers: Core-City Premiums in Intergenerational Social Mobility in China

Abstract

Do large cities promote intergenerational mobility? Existing evidence comes almost exclusively from developed societies, where urbanisation largely preceded metropolitan concentration. In rapidly developing contexts, these two processes unfold together, making it unclear whether large cities confer mobility advantages beyond urbanisation itself. This study disentangles these forces using pooled data from the 2014, 2016 and 2018 China Labour-force Dynamics Survey. Comparing intergenerational occupational mobility across rural areas, non-core cities, and core cities, defined as municipalities, provincial capitals, and sub-provincial cities, we find a metropolitan mobility premium in absolute terms. In China, core-city residence is associated with substantially higher absolute mobility (an escalator effect) but does not weaken intergenerational persistence (no equaliser effect). This escalator premium is evident among rural-origin migrants, the in-situ urbanised, and urban locals, is smaller and not statistically significant among urban-origin migrants, and is largely attenuated after accounting for educational attainment and hukou incorporation. These findings caution against equating rising mobility with expanding equality of opportunity. In developing contexts, large cities may accelerate structural upgrading while leaving the intergenerational transmission of advantage intact.