School Choice Regulation and Fertility: Evidence From China's Multi-School Zoning Policy in Compulsory Education

Abstract

School admission rules in compulsory education are a key determinant of both educational equity and household child-rearing costs. China's multi-school zoning (MSZ) policy is a core reform aimed at equalizing access to quality compulsory education. It replaces residence-based school assignment with random allocation within expanded attendance districts and has been rolled out across provinces on a staggered schedule, yet its causal impact on household fertility decisions remains largely underexplored. Using individual-level data from the 2010–2020 China Family Panel Studies and exploiting the staggered rollout of the policy with a difference-in-differences design, we estimate the causal effect of the MSZ policy on individual fertility. We find robust evidence that this education equalization policy significantly increases fertility, raising the individual probability of childbirth by approximately 2 percentage points. Mechanism tests identify two primary channels underlying the pro-fertility effect, namely alleviation of housing cost burdens and reduction in expected long-term intensity of educational competition. We further document substantial heterogeneity in policy effects across both individual and regional dimensions. At the individual level, the fertility-promoting effect is attenuated among women aged over 35 and those with tertiary education. At the regional level, the pro-fertility effect is significantly weaker in provinces with stronger clan cultures and lower pre-policy housing prices.