A Multiobjective Optimization Framework for Strategic Airport Capacity Planning Under Policy-Driven Demand Scenarios

Abstract

Rapid passenger-demand growth, budget constraints, and large-scale events create substantial challenges for long-term airport capacity planning. This study develops a scenario-based multiperiod multiobjective mixed-integer linear programming framework for strategic airport capacity planning under alternative policy-driven demand conditions. The model jointly determines continuous component-level expansion and discrete infrastructure projects while explicitly representing terminal, runway, and gate capacities. Investment strategies are evaluated in terms of present-value cost, unmet passenger demand, component-level congestion pressure, and reserve-capacity shortfall. The framework was implemented in YALMIP under MATLAB R2026a and applied to four major Saudi airports over the 2026–2034 planning horizon. Six scenarios represent moderate and high demand growth, constrained funding, reserve-oriented planning, pilgrimage demand pressure, and FIFA World Cup 2034 readiness. The scenarios are deterministic, independent, and nonprobabilistic. Lexicographic objective normalization, systematic weight analysis, and parameter-sensitivity experiments are used to evaluate the stability of the resulting plans. Under moderate growth, forecast demand can be accommodated with a present-value investment of 24.900 billion SAR and no unmet demand. Under sustained high growth, however, conventional project options and constrained budgets lead to substantial congestion and capacity shortfalls. Under the assumed World Cup demand multipliers, project catalogue, budget conditions, and 10% reserve requirement, the model identifies a feasible 2034 capacity plan requiring a present-value investment of 102.373 billion SAR. This value should be interpreted as a model-based planning estimate under the specified assumptions rather than as a forecast of actual national event-readiness expenditure. The framework provides a structured basis for comparing phased airport-capacity expansion strategies under alternative demand and policy conditions.