Armed conflict accelerates cropland loss and food insecurity worldwide

Abstract

Armed conflict is an escalating threat to global food security yet its impact on cropland dynamics is poorly understood at global scale. Here we combine annual high-resolution cropland maps (2000–2020) with more than 460,000 conflict events across 155 countries to assess how armed conflicts affect cropland loss and food security. By 2020, conflict-exposed areas within 5 km of conflict events covered only 3% of global land but contained 6% of global cropland, indicating disproportionate exposure of agricultural land to conflict. Difference-in-differences estimates show that conflict exposure caused an average annual cropland loss of 14.46 ha per buffer-year and a 3% decline in cropland area. Losses were greatest in West Africa, Eastern Africa and Southeast Asia. Spatial matching analyses further indicate 23.7% greater cropland loss in conflict-affected areas than in comparable non-conflict areas. Preventing these losses could have supplied dietary energy sufficient for 255.54 million people annually. A global analysis and mapping exercise reveals that armed conflicts disproportionately affect cropland, causing agricultural land loss and diminishing potential food production, with implications for food security and Zero Hunger targets.