Global Warming Boosts Maize Yield Potential in Northeast Asia

Abstract

Exploring crop climatic yield potential under changing environments provides critical insights for enhancing land productivity and guiding agricultural adaptation. Recent studies demonstrate that unprecedented climate warming has threatened global food security, particularly in thermally privileged regions. Yet the impacts of both observed and projected climate change on crop yield potential—especially in thermally constrained mid- to high-latitude zones—are still inadequately quantified. In this study, we investigated the response of maize (Zea mays L.) yield potential to climate warming across Northeast Asia using the Python Package of Agro-Ecological Zones model, integrating both historical observations and future climate projections. Our analysis reveals that climate warming will significantly prolong the growing season between 2020 and 2100 relative to historical baselines. Under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the thermal growing period is projected to extend by 2.02 and 4.15 days per decade (d·decade⁻¹), respectively, while the hydrothermal growing period increased by 1.48 and 2.39 d·decade⁻¹. Our findings further indicate a pronounced northwestward migration of climatically viable maize cultivation zones under both scenarios, with potential areal expansions of 61.02% (5.78 × 10⁵ km²) and 76.73% (7.26 × 10⁵ km²) relative to historical baselines. As a result, the maize climatic yield potential under rainfed conditions is projected to increase at 0.19 and 0.30 t·ha⁻¹·decade⁻¹ for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Irrigation amplifies these gains, with yield rising by 0.24 and 0.36 t·ha⁻¹·decade⁻¹ under corresponding scenarios. These findings provide robust evidence for maintaining regional food security under climate change, revealing significant untapped potential. To capitalize on these warming-induced agricultural opportunities while mitigating associated risks, we recommend implementing climate-smart agriculture through: (i) optimized planting calendars, (ii) strategic redistribution of cultivated areas, and (iii) advanced precision irrigation systems.