Patterns and Mechanisms of Small-Town Shrinkage in the Yangtze River Delta, China

Abstract

Small towns in China are widely facing the dual challenges of weakening development momentum and sustained population outmigration, a phenomenon that has extended beyond traditional shrinking regions to economically developed areas such as the Yangtze River Delta. As fundamental units and extensive hinterlands within the spatial structure of urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas, small towns experiencing systemic functional decline will exert profound negative impacts on the process of regional integration. Therefore, systematically identifying and rationally understanding the phenomenon of small-town shrinkage at the regional scale holds significant theoretical and practical implications. Drawing on the 2010 and 2020 Chinese census data and employing spatial autocorrelation analysis, this study systematically examines the spatial patterns and driving mechanisms of small-town shrinkage in the Yangtze River Delta. The results reveal widespread small-town shrinkage in the Yangtze River Delta, with significant differences across metropolitan areas and pronounced polarisation among towns within counties. The driving mechanisms can be summarised in three aspects: (1) disparities in development opportunities embedded within the state-led hierarchical governance system, (2) differentiated spatial restructuring driven by regional integration and core-city expansion, and (3) increasingly disadvantaged position of ordinary small towns in the process of population redistribution. These findings suggest that small-town shrinkage in China's developed regions does not simply follow the conventional trajectory of urban decline associated with Western deindustrialisation, but rather reflects a broader process of uneven development under state-led urbanisation and regional integration.