Cropland edge management enhances the adaptability of cropland productivity to extremely dry events

Abstract

Rapid urbanization is fragmenting periurban cropland landscapes, increasing anthropogenic disturbance at cropland edges and heightening productivity sensitivity to climate extremes. Yet how micro-scale cropland edge interactions shape productivity adaptation to hydrological extremes remains unclear. By combining high-resolution modelling with a vulnerability–resilience assessment, we found that micro-scale cropland edge interactions are critical mediators amplifying the impacts of climate on productivity. A one-standard-deviation increase in cropland edge ratio increased log-transformed vulnerability to extremely dry events by 0.981 standard deviations, whereas a one-standard-deviation increase in ecological buffer zone ratio enhanced log-transformed resilience by 3.165 standard deviations. Counterfactual simulations identified two adaptation pathways: reducing cropland edge ratio and expanding ecological buffer zones. Across Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP–RCP) scenarios, the Edge-Reduction strategy consistently decreased cropland edge exposure by nearly 36%, while the Buffer-Zone strategy expanded ecological buffer zones around cropland by 12–15% from 2020 to 2060. Our analysis underscores the role of cropland edge ratio in amplifying risks to cropland productivity during extremely dry events and provides a mechanistic framework for adaptive land management. Climate change and rapid urbanization are fragmenting periurban cropland, increasing edge disturbance and vulnerability to hydrological extremes. This study shows that cropland edge reduction and ecological buffer expansion can reduce productivity loss and improve resilience to future drought risk.