Limited net-export capacity undermines the Netherlands’ ‘feeding the world’ narrative

Abstract

The Dutch agricultural sector’s orientation towards exports attracts divergent views. Whereas some stakeholders advocate maintaining exports to help ‘feed the world’, others question the validity of this rationale and its environmental consequences. Here we assess the Netherlands’ net-export potential using an agroecological food system model. We find that producing the food groups currently consumed domestically would require all available land in the country. Even with a shift towards more plant-based diets, the potential to export food remains limited if land is also required for strengthening natural ecosystems and fostering the biobased economy. These findings challenge the economic ‘feeding the world’ narrative and underscore the need for an ecological perspective. Our approach can be applied to other regions, helping to redefine their role in the global food supply. The Netherlands is one of the world’s top trading countries and the second largest exporter of agricultural goods. Using an agroecological food system model, this study examines the feasibility of this position.