Breaking the Binary: Population Trajectories of German Small‐ and Medium‐Sized Towns From 2001–2022

Abstract

Between 2001 and 2022, Germany's overall growth rate averaged 0.2% per year. Yet, of the 3285 towns and cities with more than 5000 inhabitants, only 52 grew in all 21 years under consideration (1.6%); 85 (2.6%) shrank in all years, leaving 3148 (95.8%) with a combination of the two. Using a novel dynamic time warping approach, we explore the processes of municipal population change beyond growth and shrinkage. We identify clusters of similar population trajectories ranging from Continuous Growth over Post‐Shrinkage to Continuous Decline . dynamic time warping allows for reducing the complexity of the population time series while retaining the maximum amount of information, particularly regarding the process of population change. We enrich these trajectories through a variety of methods to disaggregate developments within those clusters and contextualize them. By creating what we call complex population trajectories, inspired by the concept of complex shrinkage, we break with the simplified binary of growth and shrinkage. We show that five of our eight clusters are not sufficiently represented by this binary. These intermediary clusters with ambiguous population trajectories, such as Post‐Shrinkage, Interrupted Growth , and Stagnation , are largely overlooked in the literature on population change. Breaking the binary enables the identification and investigation of these places, yielding new insights into the negotiation of growth and shrinkage, regional development policies, and indicators of future population trends.