Effect evaluation of carbon sequestration of grassland ecological compensation policy: Evidence from China’s Yellow River Basin

IF 4.8 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-09 DOI:10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.003

Xiao Zhang , Daoxiong Chen , Shunbo Yao

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The Grassland Ecological Compensation Policy (GECP) is a large-scale project that has been investing in China since 2011. Despite the significant investment and long duration of the GECP, its impact on carbon sequestration in grasslands remains unclear. Based on panel data from prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) from 2000 to 2020, this study explored the effects of the GECP on grassland carbon sequestration in the YRB and its heterogeneity using a time-varying difference-in-differences (TV-DID) model. Subsequently, we predicted changes in carbon sequestration in grasslands under the influence of the GECP from 2021 to 2040 using a simulation. The main conclusions are as follows: First, the implementation of the GECP promoted carbon sequestration in grasslands. This conclusion was validated after conducting a series of robustness tests. Moreover, the effects of the GECP were heterogeneous across different geographical locations, highway densities, and grassland areas. Finally, the simulation results indicated that over the next 20 years, grassland carbon sequestration will generally increase but exhibit cyclical changes. The government should align the principles and objectives of the GECP with local geographic conditions, resource availability, and socio-economic development. It must formulate and implement tailored policies that maximize the ecological protection benefits of the GECP and promote carbon sequestration in the grasslands of the YRB.

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草地生态补偿政策固碳效果评价——来自中国黄河流域的证据

草原生态补偿政策（GECP）是2011年开始在中国投资的一个大型项目。尽管GECP投资巨大且持续时间长，但其对草原碳固存的影响尚不清楚。基于2000 - 2020年黄河流域地级市面板数据，采用时变差中差（TV-DID）模型，探讨了GECP对黄河流域草地固碳的影响及其异质性。随后，利用模拟方法预测了2021 - 2040年GECP影响下草原固碳的变化。主要结论如下：第一，GECP的实施促进了草原的碳固存。这一结论经过一系列稳健性检验得到了验证。此外，GECP在不同地理位置、不同公路密度和不同草原地区的效应存在异质性。最后，模拟结果表明，未来20年，草原固碳总体呈增加趋势，但呈现周期性变化。政府应使GECP的原则和目标与当地的地理条件、资源可用性和社会经济发展保持一致。制定和实施有针对性的政策，最大限度地发挥GECP的生态保护效益，促进长江三角洲草原的碳封存。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-

CiteScore

4.30

自引率

1.10%

发文量

791

审稿时长

79 days

期刊介绍： The Chinese Journal of Population, Resources and Environment (CJPRE) is a peer-reviewed international academic journal that publishes original research in the fields of economic, population, resource, and environment studies as they relate to sustainable development. The journal aims to address and evaluate theoretical frameworks, capability building initiatives, strategic goals, ethical values, empirical research, methodologies, and techniques in the field. CJPRE began publication in 1992 and is sponsored by the Chinese Society for Sustainable Development (CSSD), the Research Center for Sustainable Development of Shandong Province, the Administrative Center for China's Agenda 21 (ACCA21), and Shandong Normal University. The Chinese title of the journal was inscribed by the former Chinese leader, Mr. Deng Xiaoping. Initially focused on China's advances in sustainable development, CJPRE now also highlights global developments from both developed and developing countries.