Climate stressors and rural incomes: multi-country evidence on wealth, gender, and age disparities

Abstract

Wealth status, gender, and age are widely acknowledged to influence a person’s vulnerability to climate stressors. However, there is a lack of multicounty evidence to quantify the magnitude and nature of these vulnerabilities, particularly in rural areas. Using cross-sectional household survey data from 24 countries combined with georeferenced temperature and precipitation data, we estimate the differential effects of extreme precipitation, extreme heat, and long-run temperature changes on the total, on-farm, and off-farm incomes of poor households, households headed by women and younger people in rural areas, relative to their comparison groups. We show that every day of extreme heat is associated with a reduction of the total income of poor and female-headed households by between 0.8 and 1.5 per cent, respectively, relative to non-poor and male-headed households. Conversely, households headed by younger people increase their total incomes relative to households headed by older people when extreme events occur through relative increases in off-farm income. Moreover, we show that a 1 degree Celsius increase in long-run average temperatures compels poor rural households to rely more heavily on agricultural income sources, compared to non-poor households, while female headed households lose 37 per cent more of their income relative to male-headed households. We conclude that income vulnerabilities to climate stressors in rural areas are diverse and distinct, and that addressing these differences is essential for achieving our collective ambition to reduce global poverty in the context of climate change.