Burden of cardiovascular disease in China attributable to unbalanced fatty acid intake from 1990 to 2050.

Abstract

Background and objectives: This study aimed to analyze the trends in death and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) associated with unbalanced dietary fatty acid intake in China from 1990 to 2021, and to predict the disease burden levels up to 2050.

Methods and study design: Using Global Burden of Disease 2021 data, we examined death and DALYs rates by age, sex, and risk fac-tors. Joinpoint regression assessed temporal trends. Decomposition analysis evaluated contributions of population growth, aging, and epidemiological transitions. Age-period-cohort (APC) modeling estimated cohort and period effects. Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) modeling projected future CVD burden.

Results: Age-standardized death and DALYs rates for CVD attributable to low seafood n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) and high trans fatty acids declined, while those due to insufficient n-6 PUFAs intake increased. Despite fluctuations, overall CVD burden showed a downward trend. Burden was higher in males and older groups. Population growth drove the absolute increase in burden, while aging and epidemiological shifts had variable effects by risk factor. APC modeling revealed significant age, period, and cohort influences. BAPC projections indicate continued decline in CVD burden from fatty acid imbalances through 2050.

Conclusions: The CVD burden linked to imbalanced fatty acid consumption demonstrated a general decline, with forecasts suggesting a continued decrease by 2050. Older adults and males were highlighted as priority populations for focused interventions. These results can inform the development of targeted prevention and control initiatives.