A Framework for Mapping Socio-Ecological Dynamics to Support Sustainable Post-Mining Regional Transitions

Abstract

Mapping socio-ecological dynamics reveals how human and natural systems interact over time, supporting informed planning and balanced regional development. By detecting patterns in these interactions, mapping supports policymakers in navigating complex transitions and guiding sustainable regional planning. These transitions are particularly evident in regions experiencing synchronised coal mine and coal-fired power plant closures. Despite ongoing rehabilitation efforts worldwide, few studies explore how socio-ecological factors interact and evolve or employ mapping as an integrative tool. Directly addressing this gap, this study innovatively introduces a framework that treats coal mines and power plants as a connected nexus, analysing their regional impacts through an integrated mapping approach. This framework combines geospatial mapping with exploratory, causal, and predictive modelling to analyse spatiotemporal shifts in post-mining landscapes. Applied to the Latrobe Valley in Australia, the framework reveals the closure caused sharp declines in income and nighttime light intensity, with no immediate recovery in native vegetation. Projections indicate that without early intervention, the Valley risks deepening regional socioeconomic decline. Translating multifaceted data into an analytical format enables stakeholders to see through complexity, understand interconnected socio-ecological dynamics across phases, and coordinate governance to manage regional changes for balanced development strategies.