Economic costs of extreme heat on groundnut production in the Senegal Groundnut Basin

Abstract

Historical data show a rising trend in extreme heat in the past four decades in the Groundnut Basin of Senegal. We evaluate the economic costs of extreme heat on groundnut production in the region. Using temperature data from the ERA5 global climate reanalysis, we define extreme heat degree days (EHDDs) as the cumulative number of degree days above 35 °C during the groundnut growing season and estimate its effect on quasi-profits and yields at the person, household, and field levels utilizing a two-year panel data of 1,123 households. Our econometric estimations show that an additional EHDD reduces quasi-profits by 5,460 FCFA per hectare and significantly lowers yield by 2.5%. Further, rainfall interactions with EHDD generate compounding losses under high heat and rainfall. The findings highlight important and often unseen effects of increasing temperatures on agricultural practices in climate-vulnerable areas such as the Groundnut Basin and underscore the need for adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the impacts of climate change.