Does Later Longer Fewer Campaign Promote Intergenerational Mobility in China?

Abstract

In the 1970s China implemented Later Longer Fewer Campaign (LLFC), it's earliest and most widespread family planning policy. This paper systematically examines LLFC's impact on intergenerational mobility using cohort difference-in-differences (DID) and event study. The analysis draws on data from 342 local gazetteers, the 2011–2015 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), and the 2015 National 1% Population Sample Survey. Following the LLFC's implementation, the average number of years of education among the next generation in affected areas increased by 5.08%, and the likelihood of children from primary-educated families completing tertiary education increased by 4.28%. In addition to improved education outcomes, the LLFC led to higher annual incomes and a significantly greater probability of individuals becoming technicians and managers. Two main mechanisms explain the LLFC's effect on intergenerational mobility: upbringing awareness transition and increased returns on human capital, with the former playing a more prominent role. The success of incentive-based family planning policies demonstrates that such approaches can generate substantial upward intergenerational mobility spillover effects.