Industrial Structure Rationalisation, Upgrading, and the Geography of Intercity Migration in China

Abstract

This study investigates the changing geographies of intercity migration in China and how various aspects of cities' industrial structure shape these patterns. Using microdata from the population census and the 1% population sampling survey, the analysis identifies a rising share of intra-provincial migration from 2000 to 2015, accompanied by more notable changes in its spatial pattern compared to interprovincial migration. A shift in migratory routes is emerging, from interprovincial migration to developed eastern cities toward intra-provincial migration to provincial capitals. A gravity model with Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation is employed to assess the impact of cities' industrial structure—measured by industrial structure rationalisation, inter-sectoral upgrading, and intra-sectoral manufacturing upgrading—on intercity migration. The econometric results indicate that higher levels of industrial structure rationalisation and nonagricultural industrial development are associated with greater in-migration and lower out-migration. A higher capital-intensive manufacturing concentration tends to reduce population inflows, whereas cities with a higher concentration of technology-intensive manufacturing attract more migrants. The subsample heterogeneity analysis (i.e., migration to eastern vs. non-eastern cities, and to high- vs. low-hierarchy cities) and the moderating effects of time, whether or not crossing provincial boundaries, and economy are discussed. Our findings provide insights for policymaking in addressing the dual challenges of sustaining population inflows while undertaking industrial restructuring.