Spatiotemporal evolution of global maritime accidents: Integrating hot spot detection and severity modeling for system safety

IF 11 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-07 DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2025.111687

Chengpeng Wan , Long Shao , Liang Fan , Desheng Cao , Jinfen Zhang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

As an important pillar of international trade, the shipping industry has become increasingly important in the global economy. However, the frequent occurrence of maritime transportation accidents has posed a threat to the human life safety and marine environment as well. In this study, we propose a novel integrated framework that combines spatiotemporal hotspot detection and severity-oriented risk modeling that combines spatial density analysis and emerging spatio-temporal hot spot analysis to investigate the evolutionary trend of global maritime accidents from both temporal and spatial dimensions, identifying accident hot spot waters, and analyzing the relationship between influencing factors (e.g., type of accident, type of vessel, and condition of ships) and the severity of accidents by using logistic regression models. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of maritime accidents has apparent hot spot agglomeration characteristics of dynamic evolutionary trends. The accident hot spot areas show significant changes in different time periods, which are mainly concentrated in the shipping-intensive areas. Similar trends are also seen in other shipping hub regions such as northwestern Europe, eastern North America and northwestern Africa. The study provides an important theoretical basis and practical guidance for the development of shipping safety management and accident prevention measures, which can help reduce the occurrence of maritime accidents and their severity.

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全球海上事故的时空演变：基于系统安全的热点检测和严重性建模

航运业作为国际贸易的重要支柱，在全球经济中占有越来越重要的地位。然而，海上运输事故的频繁发生也给人类的生命安全和海洋环境带来了威胁。在本研究中，我们提出了一种新的集成框架，将时空热点检测与面向严重程度的风险建模相结合，将空间密度分析与新兴时空热点分析相结合，从时空维度研究全球海上事故的演变趋势，识别事故热点水域，分析影响因素（如事故类型、船舶类型、船舶类型、船舶类型、船舶类型、船舶类型、船舶类型、船舶类型、船舶类型等）之间的关系。以及船舶状况)和事故严重程度的逻辑回归模型。结果表明：海上事故空间分布具有明显的热点集聚特征，并呈动态演化趋势。事故热点区域在不同时段变化明显，主要集中在船舶密集区。欧洲西北部、北美东部和非洲西北部等其他航运枢纽地区也出现了类似的趋势。该研究为制定船舶安全管理和事故预防措施提供了重要的理论依据和实践指导，有助于减少海上事故的发生和严重程度。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Reliability Engineering & System Safety 管理科学-工程：工业

CiteScore

15.20

自引率

39.50%

发文量

621

审稿时长

67 days

期刊介绍： Elsevier publishes Reliability Engineering & System Safety in association with the European Safety and Reliability Association and the Safety Engineering and Risk Analysis Division. The international journal is devoted to developing and applying methods to enhance the safety and reliability of complex technological systems, like nuclear power plants, chemical plants, hazardous waste facilities, space systems, offshore and maritime systems, transportation systems, constructed infrastructure, and manufacturing plants. The journal normally publishes only articles that involve the analysis of substantive problems related to the reliability of complex systems or present techniques and/or theoretical results that have a discernable relationship to the solution of such problems. An important aim is to balance academic material and practical applications.