An adaptable framework for resilient subtropical low-income housing under future climate and predicted lifestyles: a Hong Kong case study

Abstract

This study presents an integrated design framework combining passive cooling strategies with occupant behaviour modelling to improve the thermal resilience of low-income housing in subtropical, high density cities. Driven by the urgent need for resilient, occupant-focused housing in high-density urban areas, the framework addresses the declining effectiveness of traditional passive cooling. These measures predominantly rely on the indoor-outdoor temperature gradient, which is diminishing due to rising extreme heat events. The proposed framework layers occupant-driven spatial adaptations including thermal zoning, dynamic occupancy schedules, functional allocation, interior partitioning, and semi-outdoor areas to create local microclimates that more effectively mitigate heat stress.

Using Hong Kong as a case study, EnergyPlus simulations evaluate current conditions and projected heat scenarios for 2040 and 2090. In parallel, façade measures such as optimized window-to-wall ratios, operable and strategically spaced windows, fixed shading devices, advanced glazing, and high-performance wall insulationfurther control solar heat gain. Linear regression and Sobol global sensitivity analyses quantify each strategy’s impact on cooling loads and annual comfort hours. The combined spatial and façade interventions reduce cooling loads by up to 73% under present conditions and increase comfort hours by up to 89% under future climates.

This approach links technical performance with occupant adaptability. It offers scalable design guidance for subtropical, high-density urban housing amid escalating heat.