Degree days dynamics under extreme representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios in the Indian context

Abstract

Global warming, heat waves, and climate change are significant concerns for humanity due to their potential threat to ecosystems and living environments. Climate change substantially affects degree days, directly related to human thermal comfort and energy usage in buildings. This research assesses the impact of climate change on Heating Degree Days (HDDs) and Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) across India under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios using Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) data from 1990 to 2014. To ensure comparative analysis, three methods were used to compute degree days: the ASHRAE formula, the Hourly Method, and the UK Met Office (UKMO) equations. Findings indicate a significant rise in CDDs due to increasing temperatures, suggesting growing demand for cooling. Specifically, CDDs are expected to surge 12 % by 2030, 16 % by 2050, and 32.5 to 34 % by the end of the century. Conversely, HDD demand is reduced by about 6–7 % in 2030, 8–9 % in 2050, and 17–19 % by 2100. As India has yet to construct most of its infrastructure, climate change must be included in construction planning, design, and development. This will ensure that future buildings are energy-efficient, climate-resilient, and can provide thermal comfort in rising temperatures and changing weather.