Risk assessment of strait-crossing routes using typhoon-induced multi-hazard environmental contours sampled from optimized hierarchical Archimedean copula models

Abstract

Due to the rapid nature of economic development, the demand for strait-crossing passages is increasing, thereby highlighting the importance of rational route planning. However, the development of high-resolution marine environmental hazard maps is crucial for addressing the challenges faced by offshore structures and for conducting reliable route risk assessments. Therefore, a multi-hazard map is constructed for corridor risk assessment of a sea area acquisition system on the basis of sampling-based environmental contours. The Qiongzhou Strait is selected as the study area, and a marine environmental database of typhoons that have significantly impacted the study region is established on the basis of the constructed hybrid wind field and the SWAN + ADCIRC model. Then, optimal wind–wave–current–surge joint probability models are established via the HAC model combined with environmental databases. The multi-hazard map of 100-year load combinations in the strait passage is obtained through the direct sampling-based environmental contour method based on the optimized joint probability models. Finally, both subjective and objective methods are employed to conduct a route risk assessment. The results show that the constructed system can effectively satisfy the requirements. Furthermore, this study provides valuable references and technical support for coastal engineering design and multi-hazard corridor planning.