Global Climate Suitability and Economic Risks of the Fall Armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda to Key Crops in Brazil

Abstract

Invasive species represent a growing threat to global food security and biodiversity. Integrating species distribution modeling with economic impact assessment enables the development of targeted, evidence-based strategies to mitigate these threats. In this study, we estimate global habitat suitability and associated economic risks posed by the invasive fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) to key crops in Brazil. Habitat suitability was modeled under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 245, 370, and 585) across three future timeframes (2030s, 2050s, and 2070s). The results indicate a consistent expansion of climatically suitable areas for S. frugiperda through the 2070s under all scenarios. The most important environmental variables shaping its distribution were the precipitation of the wettest quarter, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, elevation, and isothermality. Our economic risk mapping in Brazil identified soybean and corn production areas as the most vulnerable to S. frugiperda infestation, reflecting their extensive cultivation in regions with high climate suitability for S. frugiperda. These findings provide critical insights for developing adaptive strategies to reduce the future impact of S. frugiperda on agricultural productivity and food security.