Regional Differences in the Chance to Become a Centenarian in Nineteenth and Early Twentieth Century Dutch Birth Cohorts

Abstract

Various areas around the world have been identified as areas with significantly higher proportions of centenarians than elsewhere. These so-called ‘blue zones’ are assumed only to be found in geographically and/or historically isolated regions with more traditional lifestyles. Our objective is to find out whether areas with exceptional high numbers of centenarians can be found in the Netherlands. We use a long historical perspective analysing Dutch birth cohorts 1812–1923. We compiled a unique database of all centenarians (7074 men and 29,144 women), who died between 1912 and 2023 or were still alive in 2024. We examine long-term national trends using the extreme longevity index (ELI). We use spatial clustering techniques to examine regional differences. We assess to what extent place of birth is indicative of the places where centenarians have spent their life. We investigate the relationship between ELI and municipal characteristics using spatial autoregressive models. From around birth cohort 1875 onwards ELI strongly increased up to 164 (male) and 813 (female) centenarians per 100,000 births for birth cohorts 1890–1923. High ELI clusters are found in the rural more isolated southwest and northeast, but also in the urbanised west of the country. At the municipal level both the proportion of Catholics and infant mortality were negatively related with ELI. The proportion of workers in agriculture was positively related with ELI. The effects became stronger over time.