Research on the impact of demographic factors on carbon emissions from residential buildings in Chongqing (China)

Abstract

Addressing demographic changes and reducing carbon emissions are a key challenge for China. Carbon emissions from energy consumption in the building sector account for more than one-third of global carbon emissions. To explore the influence of demographic factors on carbon emissions from residential buildings, this study employs the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model at the urban scale. Meanwhile, to analyze the interaction among demographic factors and their cascading impacts on residential carbon emissions under various future scenarios, a System Dynamics (SD) model is utilized. Results show the following: First, ridge regression coefficients quantify the impacts of demographic factors (household size (−0.396), population (0.239), urbanization rate (0.183), aging (0.133), and education level (0.054)) on carbon emissions. Second, system simulations estimate that carbon emissions from residential buildings in Chongqing will reach 20.32 million tons of CO₂ by 2035. Third, scenario simulations reveal that carbon emissions are most sensitive to changes in household size, while the effects of the aging population and urbanization rate are relatively weaker. This study offers insights for energy-saving and emission-reduction policies in China and other countries, especially regarding household size optimization.