Data-driven nitrogen management benchmarks support China’s wheat self-sufficiency by 2030

Abstract

Targeted improvement pathways for crop production are needed to meet growing food demand, but quantitative benchmarks are still lacking in China. Here we establish nitrogen (N) management benchmarks for wheat production at regional-to-country scales using a modified approach outlined by the EU Nitrogen Expert Panel, defined as meeting both the requirements for targeted crop N output and the threshold for N surplus. A large-scale survey of farmers shows that only 20% of China’s wheat harvested area met N management benchmarks. Optimized N management, soil fertility and climatic factors account for 70% of the effect on N management benchmarks; the combination of these contributors is projected to increase China’s wheat harvested area that meets N management benchmarks to 75% by 2030. With this, wheat production would increase by 12%, sufficient to achieve wheat self-sufficiency without imports. We demonstrate how N management benchmarks can be achieved under future climate change scenarios.