The case for optimal investment in combating HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria: a global modelling study

Abstract

Background

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) include ending the epidemics of HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria by 2030. With 5 years remaining to meet this goal, and with the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria seeking funding for programmes in 2027–29, establishing what can be achieved through continued investment in combatting these diseases is crucial. We aimed to estimate the potential for impact by analysing the funding landscape and epidemiological situations of these three diseases, the costs of key programmes, and the extent of possible future progress in the countries eligible for Global Fund support.

Method

In this modelling study, we developed estimates of the financial resources needed in Global Fund-supported countries to combat HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria from the global plans produced by UNAIDS, the Stop TB Partnership, and WHO. Estimates of available resources in the coming years were obtained by assuming that national expenditure on the three diseases would grow in line with general governmental expenditures, that the Global Fund would contribute an additional $18·0 billion, and that other developmental assistance would be at the same level in real terms as the average in the period 2020–22. Epidemiological and costing models for each of the three diseases were used to quantify the possible impact in Global Fund-eligible countries (including on aggregated mortality and incidence rates). The return on investment (ROI) was computed considering both the intrinsic value of health and the direct economic benefits of the reduced risk of morbidity and premature mortality. The analysis was completed at the end of 2024 with the latest available data, which pertained to the year 2023. The focus of the projection period was 2027–29, a period for which scale-up plans and funding have not yet been committed and the period when most of the resources raised by the eighth replenishment of the Global Fund would be used.

Findings

The total resource needs for the three diseases were estimated to be US$140·6 billion in 2027–29. We calculated that $111·3 billion (79%) of this need could be met from domestic financing ($69·7 billion), the Global Fund ($18·0 billion), and other external donors ($23·6 billion). Optimal use of these available resources could save 23 million lives and avert 400 million cases and new infections during 2027–29. The trajectory of the combined mortality rate for all diseases was projected to approach that needed to reach the SDG for 2030 (with a difference between the target in 2030 and the projection at the end of 2029 of between 1·5% and 15·5% of the normalised aggregated mortality rate), inequality in life expectancy between countries would be 7% lower by 2029, and 189 million fewer hospital days and 572 million fewer outpatient visits would be needed in 2027–29, saving $1·1 billion. For every $1·00 invested, there could be up to $19·00 in intrinsic health value created or $3·50 in direct economic benefits.

Interpretation

Continued investments to combat HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria could yield enormous health gains and a high return on investment. Realising these benefits will require continued growth in national expenditure and a broad maintenance of external financing for these diseases, including a successful replenishment of the Global Fund in 2025.

Funding

The Global Fund.