Reliability assessment methods considering failure correlation and importance analysis for multiple progressive damage

IF 9.4 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-06-24 DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2025.111389

Zhixuan Gao , Deyin Jiang , Xinchen Zhuang , Weimin Cui , Tianxiang Yu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Aircraft complex mechanisms are susceptible to multiple progressive damage in operation, where a particular form of damage can have an effect on the strength of another through the mechanism transmission. The results of reliability analysis that ignores the correlation between them will deviate from the actual situation. To address the above problems, based on the characteristics of multiple progressive damage, two correlation models of multiple progressive damage are established, and a reliability assessment method considering the correlation of multiple progressive damage is proposed. Based on the vine copula theory, the correlation model of multiple progressive damage systems at different times was established, and the reliability of the system was calculated based on Monte Carlo method. Based on the importance theory, the importance analysis method is further proposed for multiple progressive damage. The results of the engineering case study show that ignoring the correlation between multiple progressive damage can lead to an inaccurate system reliability assessment, the maximum relative error to the reliability results for the independent case is 25 %. And the types of damage that need to be focused on maintenance are obtained by importance analysis, and the method provides a reference for the reliability assessment of complex mechanisms in aerospace.

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考虑失效相关性和重要性分析的多重渐进损伤可靠性评估方法

飞机复杂机构在操作中容易受到多重渐进损伤，其中一种特定形式的损伤可以通过机构传输对另一种损伤的强度产生影响。忽略两者之间相关性的可靠性分析结果会偏离实际情况。针对上述问题，根据多发渐进损伤的特点，建立了多发渐进损伤的两种相关模型，提出了一种考虑多发渐进损伤相关性的可靠性评估方法。基于vine copula理论，建立了多个渐进损伤系统在不同时间的关联模型，并基于蒙特卡罗方法计算了系统的可靠度。在重要性理论的基础上，进一步提出了多重渐进损伤的重要性分析方法。工程实例研究结果表明，忽略多个渐进损伤之间的相关性会导致系统可靠性评估不准确，独立情况下可靠性评估结果的最大相对误差为25%。并通过重要性分析得到了需要重点维修的损伤类型，为航空航天复杂机构的可靠性评估提供了参考。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Reliability Engineering & System Safety 管理科学-工程：工业

CiteScore

15.20

自引率

39.50%

发文量

621

审稿时长

67 days

期刊介绍： Elsevier publishes Reliability Engineering & System Safety in association with the European Safety and Reliability Association and the Safety Engineering and Risk Analysis Division. The international journal is devoted to developing and applying methods to enhance the safety and reliability of complex technological systems, like nuclear power plants, chemical plants, hazardous waste facilities, space systems, offshore and maritime systems, transportation systems, constructed infrastructure, and manufacturing plants. The journal normally publishes only articles that involve the analysis of substantive problems related to the reliability of complex systems or present techniques and/or theoretical results that have a discernable relationship to the solution of such problems. An important aim is to balance academic material and practical applications.