Moving Back and Forth: A Longitudinal Approach to Analyze Migration Trajectories

Abstract

Migration and its implications are key research topics in population studies. Although scholars argue for a paradigm shift to examine migration from a life-course perspective, the central body of empirical studies treated migration as a one-off event. Joining the recent growing studies that focus on migration trajectories, this study proposes a new approach to identify distinct migration trajectories and examine their consequences by considering the directions and frequencies of migrations. This study uses prospective data from China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) 2010–2020 to demonstrate the method and integrates with the fixed-effect model to estimate the impacts of the migration trajectories of the internal rural–urban child migrants on their educational attainment. Four migration trajectories were identified during the 10 years of observations, including migrant stayers, return migrants and circular migrants of different directions. Results illustrate their heterogeneities and educational consequences. The impact of one's migration trajectory on education is determined by the direction (to rural or to urban) of the transition and the accumulated effects of every transition.