Social Determinants of Health and Antibiotic Consumption.

IF 4.3 2区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Yuliya Semenova, Kamila Akhmetova, Daniil Semenov, Larissa Makalkina, Vladimir Surov, Lyudmila Pivina, Assiya Turgambayeva, Tatiana Belikhina, Saule Maukayeva, Maya Goremykina, Praveen Kumar
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Abstract

Background/Objectives: This study aims to analyze antibiotic consumption trends from 2014 to 2023 in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Russia; forecast future trends up to 2030; and identify key social and economic factors influencing antibiotic use. Methods: Data on antibiotic consumption were obtained from the World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe Antimicrobial Consumption Network. Social and economic indicators were sourced from the World Bank DataBank. Of the 86 factors initially considered, 35 were included in the analyses. The forecast modeling of antibiotic consumption trends until 2030 and linear regression analysis to assess associations between antibiotic consumption and its predictors were conducted via SPSS. Results: The lowest antibiotic consumption rates were observed in Kazakhstan and Russia, whereas Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan presented higher rates. The projected antibiotic consumption rates are expected to decline only in Kazakhstan, with other countries remaining stable. Birth and death rates, as well as under-five mortality rates, were significant determinants of antibiotic consumption in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. In Russia, per capita GDP was a key determinant, whereas in Kazakhstan, inflation in consumer prices played a significant role. Additionally, cereal production was significantly associated with antibiotic consumption in Kazakhstan. In Kyrgyzstan and Russia, measles immunization rates were important determinants, whereas in Kyrgyzstan, access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking was significantly associated with antibiotic consumption. Conclusions: The findings of this study provide valuable insights for strengthening antimicrobial stewardship programs by addressing key social and economic determinants of antibiotic use.

健康和抗生素消费的社会决定因素。
背景/目的:本研究旨在分析哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和俄罗斯2014 - 2023年抗生素消费趋势;预测到2030年的未来趋势;并确定影响抗生素使用的关键社会和经济因素。方法:抗生素消费数据来自世界卫生组织欧洲抗菌药物消费网络区域办事处。社会和经济指标来源于世界银行数据库。在最初考虑的86个因素中,有35个因素被纳入了分析。通过SPSS软件对2030年之前的抗生素消费趋势进行预测建模,并进行线性回归分析,评估抗生素消费与预测因子之间的相关性。结果:哈萨克斯坦和俄罗斯抗菌药物消费率最低,吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦抗菌药物消费率较高。预计抗生素消费率仅在哈萨克斯坦下降,其他国家保持稳定。在哈萨克斯坦和塔吉克斯坦,出生率和死亡率以及五岁以下儿童死亡率是抗生素消费的重要决定因素。在俄罗斯,人均国内生产总值是一个关键的决定因素,而在哈萨克斯坦,消费者价格的通货膨胀发挥了重要作用。此外,在哈萨克斯坦,谷物生产与抗生素消费显著相关。在吉尔吉斯斯坦和俄罗斯,麻疹免疫率是重要的决定因素,而在吉尔吉斯斯坦,获得清洁燃料和烹饪技术与抗生素消费显著相关。结论:本研究结果通过解决抗生素使用的主要社会和经济决定因素,为加强抗菌药物管理规划提供了有价值的见解。
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来源期刊
Antibiotics-Basel
Antibiotics-Basel Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutics-General Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutics
CiteScore
7.30
自引率
14.60%
发文量
1547
审稿时长
11 weeks
期刊介绍: Antibiotics (ISSN 2079-6382) is an open access, peer reviewed journal on all aspects of antibiotics. Antibiotics is a multi-disciplinary journal encompassing the general fields of biochemistry, chemistry, genetics, microbiology and pharmacology. Our aim is to encourage scientists to publish their experimental and theoretical results in as much detail as possible. Therefore, there is no restriction on the length of papers.
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