Exploring a diverse set of specifications related to associations between adolescent smoking, vaping, and emotional problems: a multiverse analysis

IF 3.6 2区医学 Q1 PSYCHOLOGY, CLINICAL

Addictive behaviors Pub Date : 2025-05-12 DOI:10.1016/j.addbeh.2025.108380

Jillian Halladay , Rachel Visontay , Matthew Sunderland , Amy-Leigh Rowe , Scarlett Smout , Emma Devine , Emily Stockings , Jack L. Andrews , Katrina E. Champion , Lauren Gardner , Nicola Newton , Maree Teesson , Tim Slade

{"title":"Exploring a diverse set of specifications related to associations between adolescent smoking, vaping, and emotional problems: a multiverse analysis","authors":"Jillian Halladay , Rachel Visontay , Matthew Sunderland , Amy-Leigh Rowe , Scarlett Smout , Emma Devine , Emily Stockings , Jack L. Andrews , Katrina E. Champion , Lauren Gardner , Nicola Newton , Maree Teesson , Tim Slade","doi":"10.1016/j.addbeh.2025.108380","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Purpose</h3><div>The epidemiological landscape of adolescent smoking, vaping, and emotional problems has drastically changed over the past two decades. Whether and why these problems co-occur remains unclear, though this understanding is crucial for global policy and prevention efforts. The nature of co-occurring problems may be influenced by different researcher decisions when defining, operationalizing, and modeling these relationships. This study uses multiverse analysis (also known as specification curve analysis or vibration of effects), which models all justifiable measurement and analytic specifications in a single sample, to unpack the impact of researcher decisions when modeling these relationships.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Multiverse analyses were done with 3,648 unique models using a longitudinal sample of 6,639 Australian adolescents (aged ∼14.7–15.7, 2021–2022).</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Consistent co-occurrence of smoking or vaping and emotional problems was seen across unadjusted or only demographic-adjusted cross-sectional models (100 %). However, the temporality of relationships, choice of confounders, and operationalization of emotional problems substantially impacted findings. Emotional problems appeared to lead to reports of past 6 month smoking more-so than the reverse (88 % vs. 9 % unadjusted/demographic-adjusted), depression-focused measures yielded more consistent associations with smoking or vaping than anxiety-focused, and certain confounders (i.e., conduct, ADHD, other substances) explained most of the associations between adolescent smoking or vaping and emotional problems. Decision related to missingness or binary versus continuous outcomes did not meaningfully impact findings.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>While adolescent smoking or vaping and emotional problems commonly co-occur, methodological choices regarding timing, definitions, and confounding significantly influence the perceived strength of these relationships. Hence, such nuances demand careful consideration when interpreting evidence for policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7155,"journal":{"name":"Addictive behaviors","volume":"169 ","pages":"Article 108380"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Addictive behaviors","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306460325001418","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PSYCHOLOGY, CLINICAL","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Purpose

The epidemiological landscape of adolescent smoking, vaping, and emotional problems has drastically changed over the past two decades. Whether and why these problems co-occur remains unclear, though this understanding is crucial for global policy and prevention efforts. The nature of co-occurring problems may be influenced by different researcher decisions when defining, operationalizing, and modeling these relationships. This study uses multiverse analysis (also known as specification curve analysis or vibration of effects), which models all justifiable measurement and analytic specifications in a single sample, to unpack the impact of researcher decisions when modeling these relationships.

Methods

Multiverse analyses were done with 3,648 unique models using a longitudinal sample of 6,639 Australian adolescents (aged ∼14.7–15.7, 2021–2022).

Results

Consistent co-occurrence of smoking or vaping and emotional problems was seen across unadjusted or only demographic-adjusted cross-sectional models (100 %). However, the temporality of relationships, choice of confounders, and operationalization of emotional problems substantially impacted findings. Emotional problems appeared to lead to reports of past 6 month smoking more-so than the reverse (88 % vs. 9 % unadjusted/demographic-adjusted), depression-focused measures yielded more consistent associations with smoking or vaping than anxiety-focused, and certain confounders (i.e., conduct, ADHD, other substances) explained most of the associations between adolescent smoking or vaping and emotional problems. Decision related to missingness or binary versus continuous outcomes did not meaningfully impact findings.

Conclusions

While adolescent smoking or vaping and emotional problems commonly co-occur, methodological choices regarding timing, definitions, and confounding significantly influence the perceived strength of these relationships. Hence, such nuances demand careful consideration when interpreting evidence for policy.

查看原文本刊更多论文

探索与青少年吸烟、电子烟和情绪问题之间的关联相关的各种规范：多元宇宙分析

在过去的二十年里，青少年吸烟、电子烟和情绪问题的流行病学格局发生了巨大的变化。这些问题是否以及为何同时发生尚不清楚，尽管这种理解对全球政策和预防工作至关重要。在定义、操作化和建模这些关系时，不同的研究人员的决定可能会影响共同发生问题的性质。本研究使用多元宇宙分析（也称为规格曲线分析或效应振动），在单个样本中对所有合理的测量和分析规格进行建模，以解开研究者在建模这些关系时决策的影响。方法对6639名澳大利亚青少年（年龄在2021-2022年，14.7-15.7岁）的纵向样本进行了3648个独特模型的多元宇宙分析。结果在未调整或仅人口统计学调整的横断面模型中，吸烟或电子烟与情绪问题一致共存（100%）。然而，关系的暂时性、混杂因素的选择和情绪问题的可操作性对研究结果有很大影响。情绪问题似乎比相反的情况更容易导致过去6个月的吸烟报告（88% vs. 9%未经调整/人口统计调整），以抑郁为重点的测量结果与吸烟或电子烟的关联比以焦虑为重点的测量结果更为一致，某些混杂因素（即行为、多动症、其他物质）解释了青少年吸烟或电子烟与情绪问题之间的大部分关联。与缺失或二元与连续结果相关的决定对结果没有意义的影响。结论：虽然青少年吸烟或电子烟与情绪问题通常同时发生，但关于时间、定义和混淆的方法选择显著影响了这些关系的感知强度。因此，在解释政策证据时，需要仔细考虑这些细微差别。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Addictive behaviors 医学-药物滥用

CiteScore

8.40

自引率

4.50%

发文量

283

审稿时长

46 days

期刊介绍： Addictive Behaviors is an international peer-reviewed journal publishing high quality human research on addictive behaviors and disorders since 1975. The journal accepts submissions of full-length papers and short communications on substance-related addictions such as the abuse of alcohol, drugs and nicotine, and behavioral addictions involving gambling and technology. We primarily publish behavioral and psychosocial research but our articles span the fields of psychology, sociology, psychiatry, epidemiology, social policy, medicine, pharmacology and neuroscience. While theoretical orientations are diverse, the emphasis of the journal is primarily empirical. That is, sound experimental design combined with valid, reliable assessment and evaluation procedures are a requisite for acceptance. However, innovative and empirically oriented case studies that might encourage new lines of inquiry are accepted as well. Studies that clearly contribute to current knowledge of etiology, prevention, social policy or treatment are given priority. Scholarly commentaries on topical issues, systematic reviews, and mini reviews are encouraged. We especially welcome multimedia papers that incorporate video or audio components to better display methodology or findings. Studies can also be submitted to Addictive Behaviors? companion title, the open access journal Addictive Behaviors Reports, which has a particular interest in ''non-traditional'', innovative and empirically-oriented research such as negative/null data papers, replication studies, case reports on novel treatments, and cross-cultural research.