Assessing performance regret of residential energy-flexibility measures under uncertainty: An ex-ante analysis of techno-economic implications

Abstract

The increase of renewable energy in the built environment, together with the intermittent nature of these sources, cause energy mismatch problems between on-site energy generation and demand. This increased interest in Energy-Flexibility (EF) measures in residential buildings. This study provides an in-depth analysis for evaluating the performance regret of investment opportunities in residential EF-measures. It includes local electricity storage, production and smart automation- under a very extended range of dynamic and uncertain boundary conditions. A component-based design space exploration method is introduced, enabling robust assessment of EF and Life Cycle Cost (LCC) performance through dynamic ex-ante LCC analysis and energy simulations. This approach effectively addresses the limitations of traditional methodologies that overlook dynamic and uncertain boundary conditions. It allows for the consideration of a complete and relevant range of Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political (STEEP) uncertainties impacting investment decisions. The methodology is tested on a typical Belgian semi-detached dwelling. Results show that combined variations in STEEP-uncertainties over time are key external factors influencing EF cost-effectiveness, with performance regret ranging from 13.6 % to 80.9 %. Application to three occupant profiles (a family of four, a teleworking couple, and a retired couple) in this study reveals minor impact on performance regret.