Global, regional, and national temporal trends of edentulism burden from 1990 to 2021 and predictions to 2050: an age-period-cohort analysis, decomposition analysis and frontier analysis

IF 2 3区医学 Q2 DENTISTRY, ORAL SURGERY & MEDICINE

Journal of Stomatology Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jormas.2025.102374

Huaxiang Jiang , Liping Yin , Zonghao Hu , Zihao Chen , Haiquan Yue , Zishun Qin

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objectives

Edentulism affects not only chewing function but also oral health, facial morphology, and mental health. It's crucial to conduct an overview and in - depth analysis of the prevalence of edentulism and Disability - Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) at global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2021.

Methods

This study sourced edentulism data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, spanning 1990 - 2021. A Joinpoint regression model, with annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) as indicators, identified inflection points in the time - series. The slope index of inequality (SII) and concentration index (CI) were calculated to evaluate global health inequalities. Das Gupta’s decomposition method and frontier analysis evaluated the link between edentulism burden and sociodemographic development. Finally, a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model predicted future prevalence and incidence trends over the next decades.

Results

In 2021, the global prevalence of edentulism was reported at 353,000,621 cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 300,591,593–416,167,869), with 9,590,987 DALY (95% UI: 6,202,444–13,470,473), nearly double the figures from 1990. Decomposition analysis highlighted population aging and growth made significant contributions. Health inequality analysis revealed that the SII for DALYs was 93.497 (95% CI: 71.486–115.508) in 1990 and -18.412 (95% CI: -92.144–55.320) in 2021. From 1990 to 2021, the CI for DALYs showed an upward trend, changing from -0.202 in 1990 to 0.353 in 2021. BAPC model projects age-standardized prevalence rates(ASPR) decline by 2050, with higher burden in over 60 years old.

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1990 - 2021年全球、地区和国家牙牙学负担的时间趋势及2050年预测：年龄-时期-队列分析、分解分析和前沿分析

目的：缺牙症不仅影响咀嚼功能，而且影响口腔健康、面部形态和心理健康。从1990年到2021年，在全球、区域和国家层面对蛀牙症和残疾调整生命年（DALYs）的患病率进行概述和深入分析至关重要。方法：本研究从2021年全球疾病负担（GBD）数据库中获取1990年至2021年的牙牙学数据。以年变化百分比（APC）和年平均变化百分比（AAPC）为指标，建立了时间序列中的拐点回归模型。计算不平等斜率指数（SII）和浓度指数（CI）来评估全球健康不平等。Das Gupta的分解方法和前沿分析评估了缺牙负担与社会人口发展之间的关系。最后，贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测了未来几十年的患病率和发病率趋势。结果：2021年，全球牙髓病患病率报告为353,000,621例（95%不确定区间[UI]: 300,591,593-416,167,869）， DALY为9,590,987例（95% UI: 6,202,444-13,470,473），几乎是1990年的两倍。分解分析突出了人口老龄化和增长的显著贡献。健康不平等分析显示，1990年DALYs的SII为93.497 (95% CI: 71.486-115.508)， 2021年为-18.412 （95% CI: -92.144-55.320）。从1990年到2021年，DALYs的CI呈上升趋势，从1990年的-0.202变化到2021年的0.353。BAPC模型预测，到2050年，年龄标准化患病率（ASPR）将下降，60岁以上人群负担更高。

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