Impact of delaying PCV20 implementation in France’s pediatric national immunization program: A population-based Markov model

IF 2.9 4区医学 Q2 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Infectious diseases now Pub Date : 2025-05-08 DOI:10.1016/j.idnow.2025.105084

Johnna Perdrizet , Emmanuelle Blanc , Jessica Y. El Khoury , Maud Beillat , Ayman Sabra , Aleksandar Ilic , Stéphane Fiévez

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Abstract

Objectives

We assessed the public health and economic impacts in France for infants below 1-year of delaying PCV20 (3 + 1) implementation compared to continuous use of PCV15 (2 + 1) and PCV13 (2 + 1).

Patients and methods

Population-based Markov model was adapted for French pediatric population. Outcomes included pneumococcal disease cases, deaths, and direct costs. Impact of a PCV20 two-year implementation delay was reported by month, quarter, and year.

Results

Delaying PCV20 implementation in French children was estimated to result in preventable 15,356 disease cases and 1,489 deaths over two years, with cost of €117.4 million, versus the continuous use of PCV15. PCV20 versus PCV13 results were slightly reduced but followed a similar trend.

Conclusions

Rapid implementation of PCV20 is estimated to prevent thousands of cases and deaths over two years compared to the continuous PCV15 or PCV13 use, reducing significant negative impact to public health outcomes and waste of health care resources.

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延迟PCV20在法国儿童国家免疫规划实施的影响：基于人群的马尔可夫模型

目的：与连续使用PCV15（2 + 1）和PCV13（2 + 1）相比，我们评估了法国1岁以下婴儿延迟使用PCV20（3 + 1）对公共卫生和经济的影响。患者和方法基于人群的马尔可夫模型适用于法国儿科人群。结果包括肺炎球菌疾病病例、死亡和直接费用。按月、季度和年报告了PCV20两年实施延迟的影响。与持续使用PCV15相比，延迟在法国儿童中实施PCV20估计在两年内导致可预防的15,356例疾病病例和1,489例死亡，成本为1.174亿欧元。PCV20与PCV13的结果略有下降，但趋势相似。结论与持续使用PCV15或PCV13相比，快速实施PCV20估计可在两年内预防数千例病例和死亡，减少对公共卫生结果的显着负面影响和卫生保健资源的浪费。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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