The carbon emissions of prefabricated building in urban renewal: Assessment and emission reduction path

Abstract

Prefabricated buildings have been vigorously promoted for benefits in energy saving, environmental protection, and industrialization. However, few studies explore the impact of prefabricated buildings on carbon emissions in urban renewal. This paper thus aims to assess the carbon emissions of prefabricated buildings and ascertain the path for carbon emission reduction from prefabricated buildings in urban renewal. Firstly, the influencing factors and mechanisms of carbon emissions for prefabricated buildings were developed using meta-analysis and structural equation modelling (SEM). Secondly, an assessment model for carbon emissions from prefabricated buildings in urban renewal was developed using the system dynamics (SD) method. Thirdly, taking Beijing as a case, the carbon emissions from prefabricated buildings in urban renewal from 2023 to 2035 were predicted, determining the optimal carbon reduction path under 15 scenarios. During the forecast period, the carbon emissions from prefabricated buildings in urban renewal in Beijing are expected to increase by 18.10%. In 2035, the total carbon emission from building operations and prefabricated building fabrication in the system will account for 74.59% of the total predicted carbon emission. The optimal carbon reduction path considers four aspects: low-carbon policy regulation by enterprises and the public, technological progress, building area regulation, and energy structure optimization.