PDET-based assumption-free method for efficient seismic fragility assessment of slopes with combined uncertainties of soil materials and input ground motions

Abstract

Seismic fragility denotes the probabilities of a system exceeding some prescribed damage levels under a range of seismic intensities. Classical seismic fragility studies in slope engineering usually construct fragility functions by making some assumptions for fragility curve shape, and always neglect spatial variability of soil materials. In this study, an assumption-free method on the basis of probability density evolution theory (PDET) is proposed for seismic fragility assessment of slopes. The random input earthquakes and spatially-variable soil parameters in slope are simultaneously quantified. By the proposed method, assumption-free fragility curves of a slope are established without limiting the fragility curve shape. The obtained fragility results are also compared with those from two classic parametric fragility methods (linear regression and maximum likelihood estimation) and Monte Carlo simulation. The results demonstrate that the proposed assumption-free method has potential to gives more rigorous and accurate fragility results than classical parametric fragility analysis methods. With the proposed method, more reliable fragility results can be obtained for slope seismic risk assessment.