Urban-Rural Transformations and Fertility Decline in China: A Distinctive Perspective Within the Second Demographic Transition

Abstract

China's fertility continues to decline. Identifying the underlying explanations for that decline involves multiple and interwoven threads which we explore with data from the China household finance survey (CHFS). We examine the declining fertility in China through the lens of urban-rural transformations, and synthesize the roles of women's education, women's labor market participation and child-raising costs, and suggest that China is a distinctive variant of the second demographic transition. The analysis shows that urbanization and the convergence of rural and urban fertility levels have been key drivers of the overall decline in fertility rates. And it confirms what we have long known that women's education and labor market participation both negatively impact the likelihood of having children. The study also suggests that intergenerational support can serve as a basis for effective policy interventions to address China's declining fertility rate.