Predictive study of elderly adaptive behaviour under climate change and implications on future design of residential buildings in Hong Kong

Abstract

This study is motivated by the need to improve building design to cope with future climatic conditions and changing occupant lifestyles. The research objectives are to forecast changing lifestyle patterns in response to climate change, particularly given the absence of future behavioural data, and to provide a set of building design recommendations based on predicted behavioural changes and future climate scenarios. The study investigates adaptive behavioural patterns under extreme heat conditions and their implications for future residential building design in Hong Kong, analysing data from 348 elderly participants during intense heat periods in 2021–2022. Using this data as a proxy for future climate scenarios, the research employs two predictive models: an Ordinary Logistic Regression Model (OLRM) to examine relationships between adaptive behaviours and thermal comfort, and a Binary Logistic Regression Model (BLRM) to analyse thermal acceptability of outdoor temperatures. Results reveal significant associations between living conditions and thermal comfort: participants with larger living area per person (b = 0.04, p = 0.035) and those in village houses (b = 1.402, p = 0.041) reported higher thermal comfort levels compared to housing estate residents. Conversely, tenement building residents were 22 times more likely to experience thermal unacceptability (b = -3.111, p = 0.018). Analysis of architectural typologies indicates that these outcomes correlate with ventilation potential, presence of outdoor spaces, and urban heat island effects. The study predicts increased frequency of specific adaptive behaviours under future climate scenarios, particularly window operation, outdoor space utilization, and movement between indoor areas. Based on these findings, the research proposes key recommendations for future residential design: maintaining adequate per-person living area, avoiding studio layouts, incorporating balconies or verandas, maximizing natural ventilation through strategic façade design, and providing designated cooling zones. These insights contribute to climate-adaptive architectural design strategies for high-density urban environments facing increasing thermal stress.