Vision 2035: A forecasting framework for household final energy consumption in Türkiye

IF 6.6 2区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Energy and Buildings Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI:10.1016/j.enbuild.2025.115689

Mehmet Melikoglu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study develops per capita-based forecasting models to estimate household final energy consumption (FEC) in Türkiye from 2024 to 2035. The models demonstrate strong predictive accuracy, aligning with historical data, the 2022 National Energy Plan (NEP) targets, and key statistical metrics. The most reliable scenario assumes per capita household FEC will increase at a rate similar to Spain’s historical trend (2003–2023), projecting FEC to reach 1,110,000 TJ in 2025, 1,200,000 TJ in 2030, and 1,285,000 TJ in 2035. The 2035 forecast achieves a 99.9% match with the official NEP target, underscoring its robustness. The findings indicate a growing demand for household energy, driven by population growth and economic expansion, with no expected supply–demand imbalances. Urbanization, lifestyle changes, and housing conditions significantly influence energy use. This methodology offers a reliable foundation for energy policy, aiding researchers and policymakers in designing sustainable strategies to enhance energy efficiency and ensure long-term resource management in Türkiye.

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来源期刊

Energy and Buildings 工程技术-工程：土木

CiteScore

12.70

自引率

11.90%

发文量

863

审稿时长

38 days

期刊介绍： An international journal devoted to investigations of energy use and efficiency in buildings Energy and Buildings is an international journal publishing articles with explicit links to energy use in buildings. The aim is to present new research results, and new proven practice aimed at reducing the energy needs of a building and improving indoor environment quality.