Vision 2035: A forecasting framework for household final energy consumption in Türkiye

IF 6.6 2区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Energy and Buildings Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI:10.1016/j.enbuild.2025.115689

Mehmet Melikoglu

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Abstract

This study develops per capita-based forecasting models to estimate household final energy consumption (FEC) in Türkiye from 2024 to 2035. The models demonstrate strong predictive accuracy, aligning with historical data, the 2022 National Energy Plan (NEP) targets, and key statistical metrics. The most reliable scenario assumes per capita household FEC will increase at a rate similar to Spain’s historical trend (2003–2023), projecting FEC to reach 1,110,000 TJ in 2025, 1,200,000 TJ in 2030, and 1,285,000 TJ in 2035. The 2035 forecast achieves a 99.9% match with the official NEP target, underscoring its robustness. The findings indicate a growing demand for household energy, driven by population growth and economic expansion, with no expected supply–demand imbalances. Urbanization, lifestyle changes, and housing conditions significantly influence energy use. This methodology offers a reliable foundation for energy policy, aiding researchers and policymakers in designing sustainable strategies to enhance energy efficiency and ensure long-term resource management in Türkiye.

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展望2035：日本家庭最终能源消费预测框架

本研究建立了基于人均的预测模型，以估计2024年至2035年日本家庭最终能源消耗（FEC）。这些模型具有很强的预测准确性，与历史数据、2022年国家能源计划（NEP）目标和关键统计指标保持一致。最可靠的情景假设人均家庭FEC将以与西班牙历史趋势（2003-2023）相似的速度增长，预计FEC将在2025年达到1,110,000 TJ， 2030年达到1,200,000 TJ， 2035年达到1,285,000 TJ。2035年的预测与官方新经济政策目标的吻合度达到99.9%，凸显了其稳健性。调查结果表明，在人口增长和经济扩张的推动下，家庭能源需求不断增长，而供需不平衡是意料之中的。城市化、生活方式的改变和住房条件显著影响能源使用。这种方法为能源政策提供了可靠的基础，帮助研究人员和政策制定者设计可持续战略，以提高能源效率，并确保 rkiye的长期资源管理。

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来源期刊

Energy and Buildings 工程技术-工程：土木

CiteScore

12.70

自引率

11.90%

发文量

863

审稿时长

38 days

期刊介绍： An international journal devoted to investigations of energy use and efficiency in buildings Energy and Buildings is an international journal publishing articles with explicit links to energy use in buildings. The aim is to present new research results, and new proven practice aimed at reducing the energy needs of a building and improving indoor environment quality.