A full domain decision model for robust risk control based on minimum linkage space and copula Bayesian networks

Abstract

To effectively manage the complexity and risks inherent in rail transit operations, we propose a robust three-stage decision model. This model integrates a full-domain decision system, minimum linkage space, three-way clustering, and a Copula-Bayesian approach to create a comprehensive framework for data analysis and risk management. In the first stage, we establish a full-domain decision system that maps operational processes to specific risk characteristics, facilitating a unified approach to data interlinkages. The second stage combines minimum linkage space with a three-way clustering algorithm to identify the major risk factors from 25 potential risks, focusing on those crucial to system integrity. The final stage combines Copula theory and Bayesian networks to model and analyze in detail the dependencies and interrelationships among the 13 major risk factors identified. By utilizing advanced analytical tools, such as scatter plots, percentile spider charts, and correlation coefficients, we identify critical risk factors that significantly affect rail transit safety. This enables precise, predictive, and diagnostic interventions to enhance real-time risk assessments, ultimately reducing system risks and preventing accidents. The model provides actionable insights for managing complex risks in rail transit, offering a valuable tool for decision-makers to ensure safer operations.