How Changes in Cash Transfers Can Affect Childbearing Among Low-Income Women: Evidence from the Finnish Basic Income Experiment.

IF 1.9 2区 社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY
Miska Simanainen
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The study analyses how a two-year guaranteed income program that provided a significant earnings supplement affected childbearing among previously unemployed women. Results from previous research indicate that cash transfers may increase fertility, for example, by compensating for the additional costs of childbearing and lost earnings opportunities. However, cash transfers may also induce incentives that lead to opposite fertility effects. The study provides new empirical evidence on the effect of cash transfers on childbearing by using register data from the Finnish basic income experiment conducted in 2017-2018. The intervention increased returns from employment relative to unemployment. As a result, it increased cash incentives to employment and other activities, such as studying, that compete with childbearing. The experiment offers a unique opportunity to study the causal effect of these changes on women's childbearing decisions. According to the analysis, the experiment had a negative effect on the probability of having children among women who received basic income and a positive effect among women whose spouses received basic income. The findings suggest that while improvements in economic circumstances likely have a positive effect on childbearing, benefits conditional to working or other competing activities may have the opposite effect, at least in the short term. The findings emphasize the importance of considering the overall changes of income and cash incentives when reforming tax-benefit policies.

现金转移的变化如何影响低收入妇女的生育:来自芬兰基本收入实验的证据。
这项研究分析了一项为期两年的收入保障计划,该计划提供了可观的收入补充,如何影响了以前失业妇女的生育。以前的研究结果表明,现金转移可能会提高生育率,例如,通过补偿生育的额外成本和失去的收入机会。然而,现金转移也可能产生激励,导致相反的生育效应。该研究利用2017-2018年芬兰基本收入实验的登记数据,为现金转移对生育的影响提供了新的经验证据。这种干预增加了就业相对于失业的回报。因此,它增加了对就业和其他活动(如学习)的现金激励,这些活动与生育竞争。这个实验提供了一个独特的机会来研究这些变化对女性生育决定的因果影响。根据分析,该实验对获得基本收入的女性生育孩子的概率产生了负面影响,而对配偶获得基本收入的女性则产生了积极影响。研究结果表明,虽然经济环境的改善可能会对生育产生积极影响,但以工作或其他竞争性活动为条件的福利可能会产生相反的效果,至少在短期内是这样。研究结果强调了在改革税收优惠政策时考虑收入和现金激励的整体变化的重要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
8.00%
发文量
44
期刊介绍: European Journal of Population addresses a broad public of researchers, policy makers and others concerned with population processes and their consequences. Its aim is to improve understanding of population phenomena by giving priority to work that contributes to the development of theory and method, and that spans the boundaries between demography and such disciplines as sociology, anthropology, economics, geography, history, political science, epidemiology and other sciences contributing to public health. The Journal is open to authors from all over the world, and its articles cover European and non-European countries (specifically including developing countries) alike.
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