Explaining building energy efficiency prediction through architectural and engineering solutions considering environmental impacts using a hybrid model

IF 6.6 2区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY
Semi Emrah Aslay
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Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate building energy efficiency by integrating hybrid modelling approaches and interpretable models into architectural design processes and engineering solutions while considering environmental impacts. At the same time, it is aimed to achieve the most efficient building design possible. Separate analyses were carried out using a total of 6,913 data from Rutland (185) and Salford (6718) cities. The data were grouped into carbon emission information, architectural information, lighting information, personal heating information, and main heating system information to form a dataset. Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) was preferred as the base model and Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) method was applied for hyperparameter optimisation. The hybrid model created in this way is called PSO-LightGBM. The optimization process was carried out using software in both R Studio and Python environments, utilizing seven different hyperparameters. Apart from the hybrid model used as a method, 2 different SHAP analyses, neural network based, and tree based, were performed to clearly explain the parameter relationships. The PSO-LightGBM hybrid model provided more successful predictions compared to the basic LightGBM model. While R2 values improved between 0.82 and 0.90 in the Rutland dataset, this value increased from 0.8687 to 0.8901 for test data and from 0.8538 to 0.9091 for training data in the Salford dataset. R2 values show an improvement of 7% in the Rutland dataset and maximum 6% in the Salford dataset. When the reduction in error rates is evaluated, it is found that the greatest improvement is in the Mean Squared Error (MSE) metric. MSE decreased by 17% in the Rutland dataset and by 4% in the Salford dataset. According to the SHAP Analysis results, CO2 emissions have the largest impact on energy consumption, while primary fuel types, number heated rooms and individual heating systems are other important parameters. While the tree-based SHAP model is more sensitive to physical parameters, the neural network model is more sensitive to indirect relationships. In both analyses, the communal heating system type has the lowest impact. In order to improve building energy efficiency, high efficiency individual boiler systems should be preferred, architectural approaches that optimise the number of heated rooms and smart heating solutions should be used, and central heating systems should be modernised. The results highlight the effectiveness of hybrid modelling approaches with SHAP analyses based on different baselines to ensure the integration of environmental impacts, architectural design processes and engineering solutions in terms of building energy efficiency. Furthermore, the findings contribute to the importance of interdisciplinary work in buildings to improve energy efficiency. Future studies can focus on the development of building energy performance prediction models that can be explained by integrating various learning algorithms and different optimisation techniques, using regions with high cooling demand, large datasets and different building types.
使用混合模型通过考虑环境影响的建筑和工程解决方案解释建筑能效预测
本研究的目的是在考虑环境影响的同时,通过将混合建模方法和可解释模型集成到建筑设计过程和工程解决方案中来研究建筑能源效率。与此同时,它的目的是实现最高效的建筑设计。分别对来自拉特兰市(185)和索尔福德市(6718)的6913份数据进行了分析。将数据分为碳排放信息、建筑信息、照明信息、个人供暖信息和主要供暖系统信息,形成数据集。选择光梯度增强机(Light Gradient Boosting Machine, LightGBM)作为基础模型,采用粒子群优化(Particle Swarm optimization, PSO)方法进行超参数优化。以这种方式创建的混合模型被称为PSO-LightGBM。优化过程是在R Studio和Python环境中使用软件进行的,使用了七个不同的超参数。除了使用混合模型作为方法外,还进行了两种不同的SHAP分析,即基于神经网络的SHAP分析和基于树的SHAP分析,以清楚地解释参数关系。与基本的LightGBM模式相比,PSO-LightGBM混合模式提供了更成功的预测。在Rutland数据集中,R2值在0.82到0.90之间有所提高,而在Salford数据集中,测试数据的R2值从0.8687增加到0.8901,训练数据的R2值从0.8538增加到0.9091。R2值显示在Rutland数据集中提高了7%,在Salford数据集中提高了6%。当评估错误率的降低时,发现最大的改进是在均方误差(MSE)度量中。拉特兰数据集的MSE下降了17%,索尔福德数据集的MSE下降了4%。根据SHAP分析结果,二氧化碳排放对能源消耗的影响最大,而主要燃料类型、被加热房间数量和单个供暖系统是其他重要参数。基于树的SHAP模型对物理参数更敏感,而神经网络模型对间接关系更敏感。在两种分析中,公共供暖系统类型的影响最小。为了提高建筑能源效率,应该优先采用高效的单独锅炉系统,应该使用优化加热房间数量的建筑方法和智能供暖解决方案,并且应该对中央供暖系统进行现代化改造。研究结果强调了混合建模方法与基于不同基线的SHAP分析的有效性,以确保在建筑能效方面整合环境影响、建筑设计过程和工程解决方案。此外,研究结果还说明了跨学科工作对提高建筑能源效率的重要性。未来的研究可以集中在建筑能源性能预测模型的发展上,这些模型可以通过整合各种学习算法和不同的优化技术来解释,使用具有高冷却需求的地区,大型数据集和不同的建筑类型。
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来源期刊
Energy and Buildings
Energy and Buildings 工程技术-工程:土木
CiteScore
12.70
自引率
11.90%
发文量
863
审稿时长
38 days
期刊介绍: An international journal devoted to investigations of energy use and efficiency in buildings Energy and Buildings is an international journal publishing articles with explicit links to energy use in buildings. The aim is to present new research results, and new proven practice aimed at reducing the energy needs of a building and improving indoor environment quality.
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