The Green Revolution is not always bloodless: Agricultural modernization and rural conflict in Brazil

Abstract

What are the sources of rural unrest? Recent research has focused on wage and employment shocks, which give workers stronger incentives to engage in contentious mobilization. Examining the case of Brazil, we show that adoption of new agricultural technology that substitutes for labor and reduces employment − specifically, mechanical tractors − can contribute to rural conflict. Using counts of tractors, we estimate the effects of agricultural mechanization on rural land invasions at the municipal level. We find that the number of tractors is robustly, positively correlated with conflict. Mechanization’s impact is distinct from the effects of other factors associated with rural unrest such as rainfall, landholding inequality, or nearby land reforms. Findings shed light on unanticipated political consequences of the Green Revolution and illuminate a novel mechanism potentially shaping rural conflict elsewhere.