How Do Summer Temperatures Affect Domestic Migrants' Settlement Intention? Evidence From China

Abstract

As global temperatures continue to rise, the relationship between temperature and migration has gradually become an important area of research. This study constructs a climate migration model to analyze how summer temperatures affect domestic migrants' settlement intention, and empirically tests their relationship using data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey in 2016–2018. We find an inverted ‘U’ shaped nonlinear relationship between summer temperatures and migrants' settlement intention. That is, migrants are more willing to stay in the cities where they currently live for a long period when summer temperatures are more moderate. The inverted ‘U’ shaped opening becomes smaller among new-generation migrants, agricultural Hukou migrants and unmarried migrants. Those migrants show higher sensitivity to summer temperatures. We also empirically demonstrate two mechanisms through which summer temperatures affect settlement intention——the health effect and the integration effect. Additionally, we show that community health education can mitigate the negative impact of summer temperatures. This study extends current research in the fields of climate and migration, with important practical significance for fostering urban labor accumulation and the sustainable development of cities.