Impacts of climate and non-climate factors on cereal crop yield in East Africa: A generalized method of moments (GMM) panel data analysis

IF 4.8 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Journal of Agriculture and Food Research Pub Date : 2025-03-21 DOI:10.1016/j.jafr.2025.101829

Yadeta Bedasa , Adeba Gemechu , Amsalu Bedemo , Bacha Gebissa , Bai Xiuguang

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Abstract

Crop yields and productivity are low in East Africa due to the climatic and non-climate factors that affect cereal crop yields. In contrast to the East African countries, which only produce 2 t/ha on average, industrialized nations produce an average yield of 10.77 t/ha. The large productivity gap in East Africa is the main topic of this proposed study. East Africa's cereal yield productivity has failed because of its genetic potential. There has not been much previous study on how climate and non-climate factors affect the yield of cereal crops in East Africa using panel data. Further, this study seeks to fill a gap in existing research by employing a generalized method of moments (GMM) panel model. This study examines the impacts of climatic and non-climatic factors on cereal yield in East Africa, analyzing data from seven nations (Burundi, Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Eritrea, Tanzania, and Uganda) from 1993 to 2018. The World Bank Development Indicators provided the data for cereal yield, seed, fertilizer, and carbon dioxide emissions, while the Climate Change Knowledge Portal provided the data for mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation. The results of the investigation suggest that there is expected to be a continuous decline in cereal yield in East Africa due to the effects of both climatic and non-climate factors. Key findings indicate that the amount of fertilizer consumed and the amount of seed applied have positive effects. The yield of cereals increases by 0.833 kg/ha for every 1 percent increase in precipitation. Moreover, the yield of cereals is decreased by 4.354 kg/ha for every 1 percent increase in temperature. Utilizing high-temperature and drought-resistant cereal crop varieties is also advised to lessen the adverse impacts of climate change and non-climate factors. Adaptive strategies are needed in policy to alleviate the effects of climate and non-climate factors. This study has significant policy implications for the need to assist farmers in implementing new agricultural technologies, breeding stress-tolerant plants, and altering their production and farm management practices.

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