Creation of a System Dynamics model of recovery of affected areas after radioactive contamination

Abstract

The presented work focuses on current state-of-the-art in mathematical modeling, specifically addressing atmospheric dispersion, radiation transport, and related issues. Central to this research is the development of a mathematical model designed to support recovery processes following extensive contamination by radionuclides. The model of recovery employs the System Dynamics methodology, recognized for its suitability in addressing complex problems characterized by non-linear behaviors, e.g., radioactive decay. The model is developed utilizing Vensim software. Consequently, the recovery model integrates dosimetry estimates with economic analyses. It forecasts contamination impacts on a variety of objects including buildings, agricultural lands, forests, and transportation infrastructure. To compile the necessary input data for the model, simulations were conducted using specialized codes, i.e., JRODOS and MCNP. Furthermore, empirical data concerning the Czech demographic profile, basic characteristics of buildings, and land-use data were employed. Subsequent to these preparatory steps, the model underwent a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of relevant countermeasures, adapted to the actual conditions in Czechia. Considering very low atmospheric releases, no substantial decontamination actions would be required. For severe accidents, the results of simulated decontamination corresponded to real-case data obtained from the Fukushima clean-up. The obtained results can be used for decision-making by stakeholders and policymakers.