A data-driven framework for risk and resilience analysis in maritime transportation systems: A case study of domino effect accidents in arctic waters

IF 9.4 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2025.111049

Shanshan Fu , Qinya Tang , Mingyang Zhang , Bing Han , Zhongdai Wu , Wengang Mao

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Resilience is a complex concept that extends beyond risk, including the ability to absorb risks from external disturbances to maintain an acceptable level of safety. In the context of maritime transportation systems (MTS), resilience can be understood as a ship's ability to withstand disasters and ensure safe navigation in the face of unexpected incidents. This study proposes a data-driven framework for the quantitative analysis of risk and resilience in MTS, considering the temporal trends and domino effects of maritime accidents. The first step involves data preparation, which includes the collection, processing, and storage of global maritime accident data from the Lloyd's List Intelligence database spanning from 2014 to 2023. Next, an analysis of evolution trends is conducted to explore temporal trends and domino effects, focusing on the severity and pollution of maritime accidents. Arctic waters, known for their typical domino effects in maritime accidents, are chosen as a case study to illustrate the proposed risk and resilience analysis approach by considering the absorptive capacity in the evolution of maritime accidents. Furthermore, proactive and reactive risk control options are suggested for critical domino accident scenarios in Arctic waters to provide targeted recommendations for managing risks in Arctic shipping.

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来源期刊

Reliability Engineering & System Safety 管理科学-工程：工业

CiteScore

15.20

自引率

39.50%

发文量

621

审稿时长

67 days

期刊介绍： Elsevier publishes Reliability Engineering & System Safety in association with the European Safety and Reliability Association and the Safety Engineering and Risk Analysis Division. The international journal is devoted to developing and applying methods to enhance the safety and reliability of complex technological systems, like nuclear power plants, chemical plants, hazardous waste facilities, space systems, offshore and maritime systems, transportation systems, constructed infrastructure, and manufacturing plants. The journal normally publishes only articles that involve the analysis of substantive problems related to the reliability of complex systems or present techniques and/or theoretical results that have a discernable relationship to the solution of such problems. An important aim is to balance academic material and practical applications.